Kosovo: a regional perspective

June 19, 2007 in ESI NEWS, ESI REGION

Countries in the Balkans vary in their opinions about Kosovo’s future, but all agree that any solution must preserve stability, writes Bekim Greicevci in this analysis of views from around the region.

By Bekim Greicevci

The process of determining Kosovo’s status has entered what is widely expected to be its final phase. The issue has now shifted to the international arena, with Western countries attempting to bridge differences with Moscow and make the way clear for a vote on the Ahtisaari plan.

In the Balkans, meanwhile, opinion is divided about the final outcome. Nevertheless, all agree that any solution should be one that contributes to regional stability. Kosovo’s status is the last unresolved issue remaining from the breakup of Yugoslavia. The period of conflict not only set the Western Balkans back economically, but blocked them from rejoining Europe.

While other former communist states are now in the EU, the Western Balkan countries are still at earlier stages of accession — even though the former Yugoslavia was comparatively prosperous and developed. No wonder, then, that most in the region would like to see the period of conflict but behind them once and for all. Until its future is settled, however, Kosovo continues to be a potential destabilizing factor.

Countries in the region have varying relationships to the Kosovo issue and different stances about how it should be resolved. Albania is calling for the province’s independence, and supports the Ahtisaari plan.

Serbia, on the other hand, has said it is unwilling to let go of the territory, which makes up about 15% of the country’s land mass. Belgrade is calling, with Russian support, to reinstate negotiations, with the goal of reaching a solution other than independence for the province.

Among countries that do not have land or the majority population at stake, opinions differ. Macedonia, for instance, was directly affected by the 1998-1999 conflict, as hundreds of thousands of refugees crossed the border. In 2001, moreover, the country entered a period of ethnic conflict, and some in the country — primarily ethnic Macedonians — believe the instability spilled over from Kosovo. The Macedonian government’s official position is that it supports the Ahtisaari plan. Ethnic Albanians, who make up around 22% of the population, openly back independence for the province. Concerns still exist, however, about the potential impact on Macedonia, as well as on relations with Serbia.

Montenegro, the newest independent country in the Balkans, hesitated to come forward with a clear position on Kosovo. However, leaders there have recently thrown support behind Serbia’s call for further negotiations.

Montenegro “still believes that the option of an agreement between Belgrade and Pristina is not exhausted”, President Filip Vujanovic said during a summit of Western Balkan leaders in Budva. “It is now up to the UN Security Council to determine Kosovo’s future in a careful and responsible manner.”

His statement provoked an immediate reaction from ethnic Albanian politicians in Montenegro. “If an agreement between Pristina and Belgrade is possible, why were the NATO intervention and the Ahtisaari plan necessary?” the Albanian Alternative party said in a statement.

Montenegro, which borders on Kosovo, is a small country of 620,000 citizens which split from a union with Serbia last year. Ethnic Albanians make up 6% of the population, while ethnic Serbs account for 32%.

As with many other issues, Kosovo’s status has sparked debate among the different ethnic communities in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).

The president of the Serb main political party, Milorad Dodik, made his opinion clear long ago. “If Kosovo is allowed to declare independence, then the door may be open for many other parts of countries all over Europe,” he said, hinting clearly that Republika Srpska could try and obtain autonomy from BiH.

Bosniak leaders have not been less vocal. However, Bosniaks are known to be sympathetic towards Kosovo’s Albanians due to religious affinities. Ethnic Croatian representatives have remained mostly out of the discussion, giving their support to neither side.

Zeljko Komsic, a member of the BiH presidency, told Southeast European Times that maintaining peace in the region depends greatly on agreement among Belgrade, Pristina and the international community.

“The Bosnian position in the event of a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo, in my opinion, should be the same as the position of NATO and EU member countries,” Komsic said.

In Croatia, the Kosovo issue receives comparatively little attention. Officials in Zagreb have gone out of their way to maintain neutrality, not wishing to burden the country’s already complex relations with Belgrade. Among the public, though, considerable sympathy exists for the Kosovo Albanians and their goal of independence.

Kosovo Prime Minister Agim Ceku served as an officer in the Croatian Army during the country’s fight for independence. [Getty Images]

The current prime minister of Kosovo, Agim Ceku, served as an officer in the Croatian Army during the country’s war of independence from Yugoslavia. He was decorated nine times by Croatia for his service and rose to the rank of brigadier-general.

Attitudes in Greece are complicated. Greeks have always had strong historical and religious bonds with the Serbs. In 1999, during the Kosovo crisis, Greek media and leaders of public opinion voiced almost unanimous opposition to NATO’s action campaign against Slobodan Milosevic, despite the fact that Greece is a NATO member.

Today, many Greeks are still apt to regard Kosovo independence as the first phase of a “Greater Albania” project — the subject of much discussion among Greek bloggers, as well in the more sensational media outlets. The government, however, has tried to maintain a neutral and cautious approach, arguing that the Kosovo solution should aim first of all at strengthening security and stability throughout the Balkans.

Bulgaria’s position on Kosovo proceeds from the understanding that Kosovo’s status, and the way this status will be regulated, will affect not only Belgrade and Pristina but the other countries of the region and the entire European security architecture.

Bulgaria, an EU member since January, opposes any approach that would foment regional instability, including proposals for an ethnically homogenous Kosovo, partition of Kosovo or a union of the province with another country. Developing democracy in Kosovo will depend on a substantial international civilian and military presence, with the EU and NATO playing a key role, Bulgarian officials say.

Romanian President Traian Basescu reiterated Bucharest’s position during a recent meeting of the head of states and governments of the Central and Southeast European states in Prague.

“Romania’s position, before and after joining the EU, is a constant one: we don’t believe the independence solution will be able to answer the security and stability needs expressed by the EU and on an international level,” the Romanian president said in his speech.

“The existing antagonisms won’t be kept under control unless a long-term international commitment is maintained in this territory,” Basescu said. “On the other hand, the price of encroaching upon the principle of territorial integrity of a sovereign state is difficult to asses in the future. Romania will plead on for a negotiated solution, acceptable to both parties.”

Finally, Turkey supports Ahtisaari’s plan and internationally supervised independence for Kosovo.

Turkey has long-standing historical and cultural ties with the region, and an influential community from Kosovo lives in Turkey currently. At the same time, there is a Turkish community in Kosovo. Ankara views the latter as an important bridge between Turkey and Kosovo, and places importance on preserving the acquired rights of the Turkish national minority.

The contribution of Turkey to the security and stability of Kosovo continues to be significant. Early this month, Turkish armed forces took over the one-year leadership of one of KFOR’s five regional commands, and currently maintains 800 soldiers within the peacekeeping force.

Southeast European Times correspondents Paul Ciocoiu, Svetla Dimitrova, Denis Dzidjic, Athanase Papandropoulos, Natasa Radic, Nedjelko Rudovic, Ayhan Simsek and Zoran Nikolovski contributed to this report.

This content was commissioned for SETimes.com